GROWTH RATES AND POVERTY RATES

NO HOLDS BARRED (070) June 01, 2010
By Ike Señeres

GROWTH RATES AND POVERTY RATES

It is good to know that presidential front runner Noynoy Aquino is not impressed by the 7.3 % growth of the economy as reported by the outgoing Arroyo administration. He really has to do better than that, because he promised to remove corruption as a way of removing poverty.

Senate Minority Leader Nene Pimentel almost hit the nail when he said that the prosperity of a nation should be measured in terms of the alleviation of the poverty of the masses. He is only partly correct, because the proper measure should be poverty reduction, and not poverty alleviation.

Since Noynoy is now talking economics, he should now take the trouble of finding out the difference between poverty alleviation and poverty reduction, a very important dichotomy that has escaped the appreciation of many of our past Presidents.

To his credit, Senator Mar Roxas was correct when he said that government claims about economic growth are just like “pie in the sky”, if the benefits of the growth would not trickle down to the broader masses of the people. Perhaps Mar should explain this better though, since “trickle down” economics has been debunked by many economists.

Economists would argue that the gross domestic product (GDP) and the poverty rates are two independent measures that are not exactly directly related with each other. That may be true technically, but in practical terms, a bigger GDP should translate to higher incomes for more people, and that should result in more people going up above the poverty line.

Without directly hitting the National Economic Development Authority (NEDA), Nene said that the report was produced by “people who are eager to cover up the misdeeds of their masters”, suggesting that the figures might have been fabricated, since “they do not reflect an improvement” in the lives of the people. He seems to be talking in a qualitative sense, meaning that he is still talking about poverty alleviation, and not poverty reduction.

The problem with GDP reports and poverty rate data is that both of these are produced by the NEDA, thus making them prone to suspicions of cover up, a popular thinking that was expressed by Nene. Somehow, someway NEDA officials should be the ones who should see the connection between the two, one way or the other.

As far as I know, there are specific objective targets about poverty reduction, but these were apparently not reported by the NEDA, for one reason or another. Officially, the poverty rate in the Philippines is about 33% as reported by the government, but many believe that it is the other way around, meaning to say that it could go as high as 67%.

There are no specific objective measures pertaining to poverty alleviation, because these are qualitative characteristics and are therefore hardly measurable. Fortunately, these could be measured in terms of access to basic goods and services, based on the belief that having access to these goods and services could somehow lessen the impact of poverty, which is what poverty alleviation is all about.

I can understand that the Liberal Party was simply using a figure of speech when they made a campaign promise that they will remove corruption as a way of removing poverty. Now that the campaign is over, they should go back to the reality that at best they could only reduce corruption, and as a result of that, they could possibly reduce poverty as well.

By how much could a new President really reduce poverty quantitatively given a fixed term of six years? What could Noynoy possibly do in six years that Gloria was unable to do in nine years? No matter what poverty reduction target he will adopt, he will have to match that with real and practical resources and policy frameworks.

From a cloud of suspicion and dishonesty that characterized the outgoing administration, Noynoy now promises honesty and “living under the light”. Hopefully, in the coming months and years, NEDA will not be compelled by their new masters to do any more cover-ups. Hopefully too, they will know the difference between poverty alleviation and poverty reduction.

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PROGRESS AND DEVELOPMENT

NO HOLDS BARRED (069) May 23, 2010
By Ike Señeres

PROGRESS AND DEVELOPMENT

American President Barack Obama won on a platform of change. It was a popular and practical platform for America, because over there, progress and development is no longer an issue. The American people still needed change, even if their country is already very much progressive, and is already fully developed.

Presidential front runner Noynoy Aquino appears to have won here also on a platform of change, albeit more specifically on the angle of removing corruption, supposedly as a means to remove poverty. For lack of a better term, I would call this a rock bottom approach, because it starts from the bottom line goal of removing poverty, without a clear goal of achieving prosperity for the nation up ahead.

What does removing poverty mean? I hope that the economists under Noynoy would be able to tell the difference between poverty reduction and poverty alleviation, a dichotomy that has escaped the appreciation of past administrations. Poverty reduction means lowering the poverty rate based on clear economic targets. Poverty alleviation means lowering the rate of suffering below the poverty line.

What is the difference between progress and development? It is very important to ask this question, because the dichotomy between the two has apparently also escaped the appreciation of past administrations. Just to give you a clue, progress could happen even without clear economic targets, and even without a development plan. Strictly speaking, progress could even happen even without development.

Here is another clue: poverty reduction is a measure of development. Therefore, it goes without saying that the reduction of poverty should be a specific goal within an objective development plan. Poverty reduction could never happen as an accident, in much the same way that accidental progress could also happen even without an objective development plan. Actually, even poverty alleviation could not happen as an accident.

For some reason, the government could only think in terms of ten year development plans, this being the function of the National Economic Development Authority (NEDA). If the government would insist on looking only at the short term, they should at least think in terms of twelve year development plans, because that would exactly cover the terms of two fixed term Presidents.

Except for perception surveys, there is no practical method of measuring the removal of corruption. The good news is, there are many reliable methods of measuring the reduction of poverty, this being the more reasonable goal, instead of the removal of poverty. First things first however, the new administration should revisit the definition of the poverty threshold, since the costs of the goods in the “imaginary basket” have already changed.

The science of measuring development is exact, as a matter of fact, the measurements are already defined and prescribed in the medium term (ten year) development plan that the government already has. Other than that, there are other international means of measurement that the government could use, such as the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) and the Human Development Index (HDI) of the United Nations.

I am hoping that at the end of the term of the new administration, they will be able to report quantitative gains in actual development achievements, instead of mere qualitative claims in terms of progress alone, such as saying that corruption is already “gone”.

I do not know how long it will take us, but I think that our real long term goal, way beyond twelve years, perhaps all the way to forty eight years, is to regain our economic dominance in the ASEAN region as a nation, a position that we used to hold until we went downwards due to the lack of development. Semantically, we could say that we progressed, but definitely, we did not develop quickly enough to catch up with the other economies.

If you have suggestions or complaints addressed to the Senate, send them to me so that I could post these in my other blog, SENERES SA SENADO. This new blog will also contain posts and press releases from all Senators.

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FAIRLY A FAILURE

NO HOLDS BARRED (068) May 20, 2010
By Ike Señeres

FAIRLY A FAILURE

One day before the election, the COMELEC said that they were 98% ready. One day after the election, the COMELEC said that it was fairly successful. I do not know what barometer they are using, but the only measure should be 99.995% accuracy, as it was defined in the Terms of Reference (TOR) of the automation bidding.

Two days after the election, the COMELEC said that their critics were proven wrong, and they even issued the propaganda that some of the critics admitted that they were happy to be wrong. For the record, I now say that I was not wrong, and I am not happy about what the COMELEC has done and has not done.

I think that it is morally and technically wrong for government agencies to unilaterally declare the success of their own projects, because of an inherent conflict of interest. I have the same objection to the practice of the Philippine National Police (PNP) to declare success by reporting low crime rates, because of the same conflict of interest issue.

If government agencies are really sincere and if they would want to be transparent about their own reports of success, they should allow third party reporting and validation by disinterested groups or organizations. In the interest of good governance, the government should use these independent reports as the basis for the payment of official financial obligations, such as the case of the COMELEC automation project.

In several columns and on the air broadcast interviews, I challenged COMELEC Chairman Jose Melo to prove that their system is trouble-free, without necessarily admitting on my part that their system is hack-free. As it turned out, system trouble became the more apparent problem, with some instances of internal hacking so to speak, allegedly perpetuated by internal operatives who gained access to the security codes and the passwords.

In a manner of speaking, hacking became a non-issue somewhere along the way, as the COMELEC started removing the security features of the system one at a time. Their behavior is akin to someone who bought a very expensive car that is fully accessorized, but later on decided to strip his car of all accessories, until he is left with a stock car that actually costs lesser than the original price of his fully loaded car.

This analogy of buying a car goes back to the time when the COMELEC supposedly piloted the Direct Recording Equipment (DRE) in the ARMM election, but later on they made a decision to use the Optical Mark Reader (OMR) technology. This behavior is akin so someone who has test driven a truck, but later on decided to buy a car.

Moving on with this analogy, the COMELEC decided to deploy the OMR machines without the benefit of testing them. This behavior is akin to someone who buys a car, but decides later not to break it in, subjecting it right away to the rigors of day to day usage.

Since COMELEC started with a quantitative claim that they were 98% ready, they should have ended it also with a quantitative report that it was 50% successful, which is my own numerical interpretation of what “fairly successful” means. In mathematical terms, that means an accuracy rate of only 10,000 for every 20,000 ballots, a far cry from the requirement of 1 mistake for every 20,000 ballots, as it was defined in the TOR.

When I interviewed SMARTMATIC spokesman Gene Gregorio in Net25, he could not explain how they were able to reprogram the compact flash (CF) cards if they were really “read only”, as Chairman Melo himself claimed. I took the trouble to explain on the air that CF cards are like CD-RW disks that could be re-written several times, unlike the ordinary CD disks that could be written only once, being “Write Once Read Many” (WORM) by design. I wonder if Melo understands this.

Under the cover of darkness, the COMELEC decided to destroy the supposedly “defective” CF cards in their possession, until they were stopped by the legal action of some losing candidates. Since these cards are supposed to be government property, these should not be destroyed without following the normal accounting procedures. Since these cards are actually re-writable, what is the point in destroying assets that are still properly re-usable?

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FIGHTING GRAFT AND CORRUPTION

NO HOLDS BARRED (066) May 14, 2010
By Ike Señeres

FIGHTING GRAFT AND CORRUPTION

The first step in fighting a war is to know the enemy. So much has been said about fighting corruption, but do we really know the enemy? My teacher Fr. Herb Schneider taught me that there are two sides to this equation. Graft on one hand is the wrongdoing of public officials, while corruption on the other hand is the wrongdoing of the corruptors who allow or assist the grafters in perpetuating their wrongdoings.

So who is the enemy then? I would say that the enemy is both, but if we say that we will only be fighting corruption, that will not defeat the enemy if we do not do anything to fight or stop the grafters inside the government. But what if we are the enemy ourselves? Meaning we, the people who allow or assist the grafters in continuing to do what they are doing?

The Liberal Party (LP) says that if there is no corruption, there is no poverty. Knowing that they have good economists in their party, they probably know that what they said is simply just a campaign slogan, because corruption and poverty are two separate forces that could influence each other, but not absolutely. In other words, even without corruption there could still be poverty, and even without poverty, there could still be corruption.

By comparison however, the campaign slogan of the LP is more grounded on the truth than the slogan of the Nationalista Party (NP) claiming that they could put an end to poverty. I am sure that the NP also has their own good economists, at least good enough to know that there will always be people who will fall below the poverty line, even if the government gives welfare support to everyone.

But not to dissuade the LP, I think that they would be doing the people a good service if they could really reduce both graft and corruption, even if they could not totally eradicate it. They could be aiming for the sky if they will target the total eradication of graft and corruption, just like the NP who made the promise of totally eradicating poverty. I just hope however that the LP will know the difference between poverty alleviation and poverty reduction, two separate goals that have confused the past administrations.

To start with the basics, the LP should no longer make the mistake of delivering basic public services, presenting these as their poverty alleviation programs. The left leaning forces have already denounced this as a farce, saying that the delivery of public services is a function or a duty that the government has to do anyway, and it should not be misrepresented as the programs to address poverty alleviation.

During the height of the debates about globalization, the government was also criticized for misrepresenting the delivery of infrastructure as forms of “safety nets”, basing it on the same argument that the building infra is a function or duty of the government anyway. As the present administration is on its way out, it is again highlighting their delivery of infra as an achievement, even if it was something that they had to do anyway.

Presidential front runner Noynoy Aquino has made a campaign promise to take us away from the broken road of corruption. I think that the first step that he has to take is to decide the kind of leadership that he is going to install in the agencies of government. Is he going to assign political appointees down to the Section Chief level, or is he going to revive and strengthen the career service by naming political appointees only to the cabinet level, and nowhere else down below?

According to the rules of the Civil Service, the only political appointee should only be the cabinet level Department Secretary and everyone else below him, from the level of the Undersecretaries all the way down to the Section Chief level should be career officials. I think that this is going to be a make or break decision for Noynoy, because this decision will determine whether he will be able to reduce corruption in the bureaucracy or not.

I am not saying that all the political appointees in the past administrations are corrupt, and I am not saying either that all career officials are not corrupt. I am saying however that political appointees would tend more to become corrupt, since they have co-terminus appointments that would expire as their patrons would go out of office. By expectation, career officials are not supposed to become corrupt, but they too could become corrupt if they see that their leaders above them are taking the broken path.

Watch KA IKING LIVE! Thursdays 7pm to 8pm in Global News Network (GNN), Channel 21 in Destiny Cable. Email iseneres@yahoo.com or text +639293605140 for local cable listings. Visit www.senseneres.blogspot.com

AUTOMATION FOR GOOD GOVERNANCE

NO HOLDS BARRED (066) May 12, 2010
By Ike Señeres

AUTOMATION FOR GOOD GOVERNANCE

I wrote a series of eight articles about COMELEC automation. If you are interested in these articles, please visit my blog. There has been a tremendous interest about this subject. I was interviewed in several radio and television stations about this topic, and we discussed this extensively in the GNN coverage of the elections. However, I feel that this subject has been exhausted, and therefore I am putting it to rest, at least for now.

I would like to thank everyone who supported the National Council for Commuter Protection (NCCP) in its bid to elect nominees to the Congress. The counting is still going on, so there are no final results yet. No matter what happens, the NCCP is committed to continue with its advocacy of promoting commuter rights, including the rights to commuter safety.

I also would like to congratulate Our Barangay Inc, (OBI) for its first successful project of connecting a barangay in Iloilo. In the midst of the fanfare about politics, it is remarkable how OBI led by Ms. Elsa Bayani has kept its focus on the more meaningful goal of bringing automation to the lowest unit of governance. I know that Elsa is just starting, and she is yet to do more not only for Iloilo, but also for the rest of the country.

In another development, I also would like to congratulate Councilor Junjun Binay for winning the mayoralty race of Makati City. As of press time, his father Mayor Jojo Binay is leading the race for the Vice Presidency, and I congratulate him too for a superb campaign that put him on top of the election results so far.

Just like his father who initiated many moves to improve governance in Makati City, I am sure that Mayor Junjun will continue the tradition of using technology to bring quality basic services to the people of his city. Unknown to many, Junjun is a graduate of a master’s degree in urban planning from the University of the Philippines in Diliman, so expect him to introduce many innovations in his field of expertise. With the blessings of Mayor Jojo, the Makati City ICT Council (MCICTC) which I chair will now move on to the take on new challenges under a new administration. Congratulations as well to Cong. Abby Binay for her winning her second term.

Thanks to the massive attention that was given to the COMELEC project, many people are now aware of the importance of automation for the delivery of public services. As I did my role of informing the public about the technical details about the said project, I am now focusing my attention on yet another concern that is equally important for the good of the people, and that is the automation of early warning systems for climate change and global warming.

Perhaps it is really part of our culture to be excited about certain public issues at one time, and then just forget about it as time passes. This is apparently what has happened to our preparations for future disasters that are associated with environmental threats. Since I have access to several good technologies that the public could use for this purpose, I feel that it is my duty to help where I can, when I could.

Based on my experience, local government units (LGUs) would usually cite two reasons for not installing early warning systems and these are the lack of money, and the lack of technical resource persons. I am now removing these obstacles for them, so that they could install these systems without so much difficulty.

As far as money is concerned, the early warning systems could be funded by the Internal Revenue Allocations (IRA), the Countryside Development Fund (CDF) and through the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) scheme. If these three options are not available, investors or donors could be found.

As far as technical resource persons are concerned, I have already lined up a number of experts who could help them on a voluntary basis. Most of these experts are locally based, but if necessary, we could gain access to foreign based experts. This would not be difficult to do, since I have been doing this kind of work ever since.

My offer to help is good for all LGUs, from the barangay level to the provincial level. All I ask is for them to be willing, able and ready, and I have given this the acronym of WAR, way back from my DFA days.

Watch KA IKING LIVE! Thursdays 7pm to 8pm in Global News Network (GNN), Channel 21 in Destiny Cable. Email iseneres@yahoo.com or text +639293605140 for local cable listings. Visit www.senseneres.blogspot.com

SPECIAL REPORT-AUTOMATED ELECTION-Eight of a Series- May 11, 2010

SPECIAL REPORT-AUTOMATED ELECTION
Eight of a Series- May 11, 2010
By Ike Seneres

It took me two hours to vote yesterday. One blogger wrote that in his precinct in Alabang, it took him almost nine hours to vote. Many prospective voters gave up and went home. The duration to vote appeared to be slow in some areas and fast in some, indicating that the experience was varied in many places. Hopefully, the COMELEC will issue an honest report about the average duration in most areas, because that is what the bottom line is all about.

Amidst all the reports about Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machines breaking down and not working everywhere, the COMELEC says that only about 308 machines did not function, in effect claiming that less than 5% of the machines malfunctioned. This is what I mean by expecting them for an honest report, because the data coming from the field seems to contradict their claims.

Now that the voting is over, one very important question is the actual accuracy rate of the counting. According to the Terms of Reference of the COMELEC bidding, the error rate should not exceed 1%. As of last night, the COMELEC said that the error rate could go beyond this requirement. It is too early to conclude about the actual statistics however, since the voting is not yet really over.

Realizing that many voters would be unable to vote by the end of voting hours at 6:00 PM last night, the COMELEC decided to extend the voting by another hour. Despite clarifications that all those already in the perimeter of the precincts would still be allowed to vote no matter how long it takes, there were many reports that many were unable to vote, raising the issue of massive disenfranchisement.

The admission of the COMELEC that the malfunction rate is about 5% and their related admission that the error rate could go beyond what is allowable leaves open the question of how many voters were really disenfranchised. The answer to this question will become clear after we will receive the reports of third party sources. By then, we would be able to compare the two data sets. In the interest of transparency, it would be good for the COMELEC to allow third parties to do their own validation.

By force of circumstance, it would appear that the COMELEC ended up implementing a hybrid system of counting, combining both the manual and optical methods. Although some would say that there is no legal basis for manual counting, the argument is very strong that it is within the power of the COMELEC to partially use this method, for practical reasons.

Since the COMELEC prepared only for the optical method, it appears that they were not able to put together the facsimile signatures of the member of the Board of Election Inspectors (BEI). Without these facsimile signatures, there is going to be no legal basis to authenticate the signatures of these members, and because of that, some enterprising lawyers of losing candidates could question the validity of the documents. To add to this issue, it appears that the COMELEC was also unable to print the paper versions of the forms for Election Returns (ER) and Certificates of Canvass (COC).

The situation appears to be the same in the case of digital signatures. As far as I know, the COMELEC was also unable to prepare a database of digital signatures. The last I heard is that SMARTMATIC was supposed to function as the Certification Authority (CA). If this pushed through, there could still be a problem of conflict of interest, because a CA is supposed to be an independent entity other than the project contractor.

Up until yesterday, the COMELEC still has not answered the question of the identity of their Project Manager, so that the background or track record of this person could be vetted by his peers. The COMELEC has also not disclosed the location and ownership of the data center that will host the server, and the security features of this overall set-up.

Also up until yesterday, there were no negative reports about failures in the transmission, canvassing and consolidation stages. That is good news, and I hope that the positive trend will continue, because there were earlier apprehensions that glitches could happen since these three stages were put into operation without the necessary testing. Some issues were also raised about the validity and authenticity of the ballots since it was widely observed that many of the BEI members did not bother to use the ultraviolet (UV) lamps that were purchased to check whether the ballots were authentic or not. This is not a reliable check, but that is another issue altogether.

Check out the complete series at www.senseneres.blogspot.com

SPECIAL REPORT-AUTOMATED ELECTION-Seventh of a Series- May 10, 2010

SPECIAL REPORT-AUTOMATED ELECTION
Seventh of a Series- May 10, 2010
By Ike Seneres

It’s already election today, and all we have from the COMELEC is a verbal assurance that they are 98% ready, contrary to all the data that the media is reporting. According to ABS-CBN News, less that 30% of the Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machines have been delivered to the precinct level as of May 7. According to same report, only about 40% of the ballots have been delivered from the National Printing Office (NPO) to offices of the local Treasurers as of May 4. I am hoping that these figures might have improved as of today, but it is hard to imagine how the COMELEC has come up with the 98% readiness report as early as two days ago.

As it is now, it seems that the COMELEC might have spoken too soon about their readiness claims. From the point that the PCOS machines will arrive at the local distribution centers, it will take a few days before these are actually delivered to the precinct level. This is also the same story in the case of the ballots, because it will still take a few days before these are transferred from the offices of the local Treasurers to the precinct level.

So far, the COMELEC has been quiet about their plans to do the testing of the transmission, canvassing and consolidation stages, but it seems that they are already too busy as it is in the testing and sealing of the PCOS machines, so there is a very high possibility that they are just going to do away with the testing of these three very important stages.

According to the new rules of the election process, the Board of Election Inspectors (BEI) is required to physically remove the compact flash (CF) cards from the PCOS machines, and deliver these cards manually to the canvassing centers, in the event that they could not transmit electronically after three attempts. This appears to be an unwise procedure, because it gives the subjective decision to the BEI to remove the CF cards or not.

IT expert Jun Lozada (the whistleblower) says that in the design of the PCOS machines, all the data derived in the optical counting are stored in the CF cards only, and nowhere else. What this means is that the PCOS machines do not even have a backup copy of the data just in case something happens to the CF cards in transit. If it was too easy for politicians to snatch the big ballot boxes, how hard is it for them to snatch the small CF cards?

The COMELEC could argue otherwise, but the procedure allowing the manual transfer of the CF cards is ripe for a set-up, or even an ambush, to be brutal about it. I respect the people who are helping our democracy by working as BEI members, but what if their impartiality is compromised by hidden loyalties or threats to their lives? They could easily claim that transmission has failed, so that the CF cards could fall prey to the wrong people, compromising the election process as well.

IT expert Leo Querubin has raised another issue that has either escaped the attention of the COMELEC. Either that or they have purposely kept quiet about it, because apparently they have no more time to put it in place. I am referring to the need for the digital signatures of the BEI members. Under the new election rules, the BEI members are required to authenticate all documents, including electronic documents. Without digital signatures, how will they be able to do this?

In the event of pre-proclamation protests, only the composition of the BEI and their conduct of the procedures are grounds for protest. According to Mr. Querubin, an enterprising lawyer could cite the lack of digital signatures as a procedural lapse. He says that without digital signatures, all documents issued by the BEI could not be considered official. He added that even if the BEI will print hard copies of the Election Returns (ER), these too could not be considered as official, because the electronic source is not official.

Whether they like it or not, it is highly probable that the COMELEC will be forced to conduct a hybrid count, combining both manual and optical methods. Regardless of whether they will use manual, optical or a combination of both, they would still need the digital signatures of the BEI members, otherwise no documents could be considered legal and official.

Among all the possible ways of cheating that has been theorized so far, it seems that the “time stamp” theory of IT expert Mon Ignacio is the most plausible. He says that malicious programmers could have written two sets of programs for the PCOS, one “righteous” and the other malicious, and the latter could be activated by the built in internal time clocks of the PCOS machines, unseen by human eyes. The other theory of pre-printing invisible marks that are not visible to human eyes is plausible too, so watch out!

Check out the complete series at www.senseneres.blogspot.com

SPECIAL REPORT-AUTOMATED ELECTION-Sixth of a Series- May 9, 2010

SPECIAL REPORT-AUTOMATED ELECTION
Sixth of a Series- May 9, 2010
By Ike Seneres

It’s one day to go before election day, and the COMELEC says that 98% of the Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machines have been deployed, so it’s all systems go, as far as they are concerned. I think what they mean by that is that they have dispatched 98% of the machines, but that does not mean that all the machines have been delivered, tested and sealed at the precinct level, in all locations all over the country.

What is clear at this point however is that the COMELEC has not made provisions for the testing of the transmission, canvassing and consolidation stages, and neither have they made provisions for the dry run of these machines, including all stages all at the same time. What is also clear is that they have not verified the capability of the electrical connections in the precincts to be able to carry the load of several hours of operation with a higher wattage requirement than the usual incandescent lamp usage in these precincts.

For some reasons known only to them, the COMELEC did not bother anymore to report about the success or failure of the second round of testing and sealing that was supposed to happen after the compact flash (CF) cards were re-delivered to the precincts after these were supposed to be reconfigured. This has the effect of a media blackout, but it seems that they have to explain this later, after the election.

For the record, we now have the distinction of being the only country in the world that will attempt to roll out an election system nationally, without the benefit of alpha testing, beta testing, pilot testing and dry runs. Contrary to the claims of the COMELEC, the election in the ARMM that was partly conducted by SMARTMATIC could not be considered as a pilot, simply because the technology that they used there was for Direct Recording Equipment (DRE), and not for Optical Mark Recognition (OMR).

The behavior of the COMELEC in choosing SMARTMATIC as the supplier after the supposed pilot could be likened to someone who bought a car after test driving a truck. The analogy continues, as they proceeded to use the car even without breaking it in first, so you can just imagine the malfunctions that could possibly happen as all the rules have been broken.

Perhaps accepting the reasoning of the COMELEC hook line and sinker, the Supreme Court dismissed the petitions to shift to manual counting, citing the reason that the CF cards are “read only”. I respect the legal prowess of the court justices, but perhaps they have been remiss in determining the fact that the CF cards are designed to be re-writable, meaning that these are not “read only” as they have been made to believe. The proof of this is the fact that SMARTMATIC was able to reconfigure these cards, meaning that they were able to erase the old data in these cards and replace it with new instructions.

After all the rush that was created by the initial failure of the CF cards, no one, not even the political parties were able to inspect these after they were reconfigured by SMARTMATIC. Aside from that, no one was able to answer the issue of the “chain of custody” that was raised by IT expert Leo Querubin. As a result of these two factors, the possibility now looms that malicious codes might have been inserted in the CF cards as these were reconfigured. Either that or some of these cards might have been replaced with new cards that have malicious codes, while they were in transit.

Based on the nature of the OMR technology, it is possible for the PCOS to receive instructions via the optical marks that are printed on the paper ballots. In other words, it is technically possible to print (or pre-print) some invisible marks in the paper ballots that will instruct the PCOS to count in any other way that it is instructed, including instructions to ignore whatever marks are manually written on the ballots.

It is important for anyone who is concerned about the sanctity of the ballot to understand the meaning of DATA PROTOCOL. What this means is that a computer like the PCOS could be instructed by the operating system, or the application software, or any other input device such as the invisible marks to give priority to certain data sets, over and above any other data sets. For example, the PCOS could be instructed to give priority in counting the votes for certain candidates as these are pre-printed or pre-marked in invisible optical marks, in effect ignoring any manual marks as written by the voters.

The most likely scenario that will happen is that the COMELEC will declare successful automation no matter what happens, and they will just proceed to proclaim any candidate that has substantially won, as they see it.

Check out the complete series at www.senseneres.blogspot.com

SPECIAL REPORT-AUTOMATED ELECTION Fifth of a Series- May 8, 2010

SPECIAL REPORT-AUTOMATED ELECTION
Fifth of a Series- May 8, 2010
By Ike Seneres

Two days away from the Election Day, the COMELEC says that it’s all systems go, perhaps inspired by the Supreme Court ruling in support of automated counting. It is so easy to say that it is a go, but how I wish that they would give us a running report about the number of Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machines already delivered, tested and sealed at the precinct level, complete with the compact flash (CF) cards.

Since the Terms of Reference (TOR) for the automation project specifically required a less than 1% failure rate in the system, it would appear that the implementation is already a failure as it is, because the COMELEC already admitted against their own interest that the failure rate could exceed 30%. Also against their own interest, they had admitted that their back-up plan is only good for up to 30% failure, in terms of replacement PCOS machines.

In the actual tests that have been done so far, most of the sites already registered a failure rate beyond 30%. A few weeks back, IT expert Mr. Obet Verzola had already predicted that the failure rate could go as high as 75%. Mr. Verzola is no ordinary expert, he was the first Filipino to build a local computer, and he could have been our very own Bill Gates if only he got the right support from the government.

In the interest of transparency, the COMELEC is actually duty bound to give us a running report of the progress of the testing and sealing stage, inclusive of the CF card configuration and installation, especially so that they have no more time to do the other tests even if they wanted to. As it is now, they are jumping into the actual election without testing the transmission, canvassing and consolidation stages, three components that are even more important than the testing and sealing stages.

Aside from refusing to snap out of their denial stage, COMELEC officials have not been upfront in telling us the real story behind the CF cards. At one time, they said that these are a “read only” card which is technically wrong because it is actually designed as a “re-writable” card. As a result, they actually contradicted themselves when they announced that they will just reconfigure the recalled cards instead of buying new ones. How could they write over these cards if these are really “read only”?

Similarly, the COMELEC officials have not been upfront in telling us the real story behind the transmission devices that will be attached to the PCOS machines. Even if the law specifically prohibits the use of transmission devices in the PCOS machines, the COMELEC officials nonetheless went ahead with using it, claiming that these are “one way” only therefore there is nothing to worry about. There is not such thing as a “one way” transmission device, because these devices are always designed to be “two way”, so that they could “handshake” first before they could transmit.

It is already a cause for worry that the PCOS machines could receive malicious instructions from pre-programmed CF cards and from invisible marks that are printed on the ballots. With the authorized use of the transmission devices, there is now an extra threat that the results in the PCOS machines could now also be manipulated from an external source. This is not a theory, because SMARTMATIC actually did this in Wao, Lanao Del Sur during the ARMM elections there.

Since the transmission, canvassing and consolidation stages have not been pre-tested, there is a very high possibility that these will fail in actual operation. With these stages in question, it seems that the only stage in the process that is most likely to work is the manual voting stage. That is right; it is actually a manual process because it uses paper with manual marks, even if the COMELEC prefers to call it automated.

Even if there will be a failure of automation, it does not necessarily mean that there will be a failure of election. To save the day, the COMELEC could still count the OMR ballots manually, even if it takes longer than an automated count. Even if the COMELEC no longer has the time to print and deliver official Certificate of Canvass (COC) and Election Returns (ER) forms in time for May 10, they could still print and deliver these even if these are delivered several days after, so that real official forms could be used instead of the plain Manila paper that Director James Jimenez suggested. No official forms, no official results. For the good of the nation, and for the preservation of our democracy, it is better at this point not to use the PCOS anymore, because its trustworthiness has already been tainted. More so the other three stages, since these too could not be trusted also. Mistrust breeds bad faith, and it could trigger chaos and disorder.

Check out the complete series at www.senseneres.blogspot.com

SPECIAL REPORT-AUTOMATED ELECTION-Fourth of a Series- May 7, 2010

SPECIAL REPORT-AUTOMATED ELECTION
Fourth of a Series- May 7, 2010
By Ike Seneres

Three days to go before Election Day, and the COMELEC has not snapped out of their denial stage. They still believe, or they would still want us to believe that they could deploy most of the 80,000 Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machines before Monday, complete with the same number of compact flash (CF) cards.

As the controversy over the CF cards is heating up, a new theory has emerged, bringing out a new threat to the democratic voting process that is more vicious than the other threats. Yesterday, I received another call from a concerned citizen who informed me that he has reliable information from a COMELEC insider who could no longer hold back his conscience about a system of cheating that will completely change the outcome of the election, not unless it is exposed and stopped on its track.

Several months back, I wrote an article about twenty possible ways of cheating in the automated system of elections. I wrote that one way is to print invisible marks in the ballot itself, marks that could issue instructions to the PCOS machine, as to what to count and what not to count. What I wrote was technologically sound, because it is doable within the Optical Mark Recognition (OMR) technology.

According to my informant, some operators within the COMELEC have already succeeded in pre-programming the PCOS machines so that it will prioritize the reading (the recognition) of pre-determined invisible marks, instead of the visible optical marks. In technical terms, this has something to do with data protocol, meaning that the optical mark reader will read first (or read only) the invisible marks. In layman terms, what this means is that the machine will count the votes in favor of the pre-determined candidates as chosen by the insider operators, regardless of what the voter will shade.

As a writer and as a columnist, it is not my place to say that there will be cheating in the election. All I could say within my sphere of responsibility, within the reach of my technical know-how is that the system is vulnerable, meaning that cheating could happen if anyone wants to cheat. As far as I know, the old operators are still lurking within the COMELEC, even if the system of voting is already new.

In what appears to be an anti-climactic move, the COMELEC decided to remove several security features that would have protected the sanctity of the ballot as it was originally intended. One of these features is the built-in capability of the PCOS to automatically read ballots that do not have the proprietary ultra violet (UV) marks. This would have screened out fake ballots in the first place.

Citing some unclear reasons, the COMELEC said the PCOS could no longer read the UV marks, so much so that they had to buy separate UV mark readers. The problem with that is that they bought generic UV readers from the open market, and with that they said that Board of Election Inspectors (BEIs) could now accept any ballot that has any UV mark. That is also a problem, because anyone could cheaply buy any UV marker from the open market, which means that anyone now could produce fake ballots.

Several IT experts have already said that the CF cards might have been used to insert (embed) malicious codes such as Trojan Horses into the operating system (O/S) or application software of the PCOS. In the light of this new speculation that malicious instructions might have been pre-printed as invisible marks, it would not be too far fetched to speculate that the issue about the CF cards might have been used as a smokescreen to draw attention away from the invisible marks, in which case we are talking here about the cards in effect becoming the stool pigeons.

With three more days to go before the actual Election Day, it is still not clear whether the COMELEC could really finish the reconfiguration of the cards. Meanwhile, IT expert Mr. Leo Querubin has issued a reminder that the COMELEC had actually promised to finish investigating the secrecy folder issue in two weeks time, but it is already five weeks since they made that promise, and we have not heard from them. Mr. Querubin suspects that the investigation might now be in secrecy.

It is also possible that the hullabaloo over the CF cards might have been used also as a smokescreen to cover up the fact that there are still some unfinished tests in the transmission, canvassing and consolidation systems. With no more time to do any further tests, it seems that the COMELEC will just go ahead and run these systems out of blind faith that somehow, someway, these systems will not fail against all probabilities.
Check out the complete series at www.senseneres.blogspot.com

SPECIAL REPORT-AUTOMATED ELECTION-Third of a Series- May 6, 2010

SPECIAL REPORT-AUTOMATED ELECTION
Third of a Series- May 6, 2010
By Ike Seneres

Three days after the failed testing and sealing of the Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machines, the COMELEC is still in a denial stage, and refuses to accept the reality that there is really no more time left to deploy 100% of the machines nationwide, with fully configured compact flash (CF) cards. As a token admission perhaps, they said that there will be some remote places where the machines could no longer be delivered on time, failing to note that there are many such places in an archipelagic country like ours.

Going against all rules of statistical probability, the COMELEC said that they will be able to reconfigure some 30,000 CF cards in three days time, after setting the actual track record that it took them almost three months to configure the same number of cards. As if moving on cue, the COMELEC used the problem of the cards as an excuse to delay the deployment of the PCOS machines. This led many to suspect that they were really looking for an excuse to cause some delays.

Defying all rules of time and motion, the COMELEC decided to recall some 30,000 CF cards for reconfiguration (reprogramming) they said, again failing to realize that the process of recall could take at least one week, not to mention that more time is needed to reprogram these and ship them out again. Meanwhile, they said that they are still buying some 50,000 new CF cards from China, and that means they also need more time to configure and ship out this bigger number of cards.

In an apparent conflict of statements, the COMELEC also said that they have many such CF cards on stock and the public should not worry about shortages. One wonders why they have so many reserve stocks now, when in fact they did not disclose this information before. Also in an apparent conflict of statements, the COMELEC said that in case of shortages, they will just reprogram (re-write) the defective cards. Earlier, they said that they decided to recall these cards so that these will be completely replaced. Earlier as well, they said that these cards are “read only”, meaning to say that these are not re-writable. Which is which now?

In the midst of this controversy over the delivery of the CF cards, the COMELEC might have forgotten that until now, they have not delivered the Voter’s ID card to the greater majority of registered voters. They also have not come up with a fully revalidated voter’s list. It is hard to imagine how they could fast track this far more complex process of configuring CF cards, when they could not even produce the paper based Voter’s ID card.

In an interview with Mr. Anthony Taberna of ABS-CBN, I called on the COMELEC to snap out of their denial stage as soon as possible, perhaps until today, so that they could already make a decision to print the official paper forms that are needed to support manual counting just in case we have to use that option as a fallback. It is no joke to print and deliver millions of Certificates of Canvass (COC) and Election Returns (ER) forms that is why they have to decide today if possible.

In an interview over DZMM, COMELEC Director James Jimenez said that as a fallback, the Board of Election Inspectors (BEI) could fabricate COC and ER forms using plain Manila paper. This irked radio host Ted Failon, who said that even in the official forms, there are already many problems with faked reports, how much more for fabricated forms. Director Jimenez appeared to be unaware that COCs and ERs are official forms that are accountable.

IT expert Mr. Leo Querubin appears to be on his feet as he reminded everyone that amidst all the controversy over the accuracy of the CF cards, the COMELEC still has not tested their transmission, canvassing and consolidation systems. Mr. Querubin is absolutely correct, because we should not allow the COMELEC to present problems to us on a retail basis, this being a major project that needs broad wholesale solutions.

Earlier, Mr. Querubin has also warned that the COMELEC has also been silent about the fact that they have already installed transmission devices in the PCOS machines, in clear violation of the Automation Law. He explained that this is a very dangerous proposition, because this will enable SMARTMATIC to manipulate the results from a remote location, as they have already done in Wao, Lanao when they were the contractors of the automated voting during the ARMM elections. Just as the nation was shocked by the failure of automation in the case of the CF cards, we might again be shocked when there is will be a failure of transmission from many precinct locations, simply because no proper tests and pre-tests were done.

Copyright © 2010, publication by newspapers is authorized.

SPECIAL REPORT-AUTOMATED ELECTION Second of a Series- May 5, 2010

SPECIAL REPORT-AUTOMATED ELECTION
Second of a Series- May 5, 2010
By Ike Seneres

In the computer industry, the name and person of the Project Manager (PM) on record is very crucial to the evaluation of his peers whether the project in question will succeed or not. This is similar to the importance of the name and person of a Chef in a fine dining restaurant, which is also the subject of the evaluation of his peers on one hand, and of food critics on the other hand.

Since the time that the COMELEC automation project started, I have been asking two questions that up to now have not been answered by anyone from their end. My first question is who is the PM? My second question is where is their data center? It would follow of course that the data center should also have a manager who is presumably working under the supervision of the PM.

Yesterday, I met with Mr. Ernie Del Rosario, an IT expert who started his career in the private sector, but at one time in his career became the IT Director of the COMELEC. Based on his credentials, Mr. Del Rosario would have been qualified to function as a PM, but he choose to resign from the COMELEC when he finally decided that he could no longer swallow the wrongdoings that he was seeing inside the Commission. He too, could not answer my two questions, and as a result, he wondered about the answers.

I have not seen Del Rosario for a long time, but we saw each other again when we were both interviewed by Mr. Anthony Taberna of ABS-CBN on the subject of the failed Precinct Count Optical Scanning (PCOS) machine testing and sealing procedure. To my surprise, we shared exactly the same position that the COMELEC should decide right away to already put aside optical counting, so that it could save the election and perhaps save the country as well from chaos and public disorder.

Yesterday, the COMELEC announced that they are going to recall the 80,000 or so compact flash (CF) cards that were supposed to be installed in the PCOS machines. These are the same memory cards that caused the malfunction of the said machines. Later in the day, it became clear that the COMELEC only has about 30,000 of these CF cards on stock, and the remaining 50,000 or so are still being procured.

Based on media reports, it took SMARTMATIC about two and a half months to configure the 30,000 CF cards that they had on hand, the same cards that were found to be defective. The COMELEC said that it will only take them three days to reconfigure (reprogram) the CF cards, without explaining how a process that almost took three months could be done in three days. Not surprisingly, the COMELEC was silent on how long it will take them to configure (program) the remaining 50,000 CF cards if and when they could procure these.

As a result of the failed testing and sealing process, the COMELEC ordered the suspension of the delivery of the PCOS machines to most of the provinces, a move that has presented a scary scenario because as it is now, they apparently do not have enough time to deliver these, along with the reconfigured or configured CF cards as the case may be.

In my interview with Mr. Taberna, I called upon the COMELEC to snap out of their state of denial, and for them to admit today or tomorrow that they could no longer meet the deadline for the delivery of the PCOS machines, so that they could already start preparing for manual counting. Mr. Del Rosario did the same thing, calling upon the COMELEC to “bite the bullet” and to face the truth, so that practical moves could already be made.

As I see it now, the lack of a PM on record could be the cause of their operational and technical problems. As the COMELEC admitted that there were indeed programming errors in the configuration of the CF cards, some IT experts wondered what other mistakes they could have made, or are yet to make, considering the apparent lack of both process control and quality control systems.

In a message sent to me, IT expert Mr. Leo Quirubin expressed some serious concerns about the “chain of custody” over the CF cards as these will be moved from the COMELEC warehouse to the precinct level. His concerns are valid, because the high possibility that these cards could be substituted or reprogrammed along the way by malicious persons. In the testing done the other day, there were strong indications that the errors in the optical counting might have been caused by malicious codes that were pre-programmed into the memory cards to favor certain candidates. Mr. Qurubin says that with an unclear “chain of custody”, these cards could be tampered along the way.
Copyright © 2010, publication by newspapers is authorized.

SPECIAL REPORT-AUTOMATED ELECTION First of a Series- May 4, 2010

SPECIAL REPORT-AUTOMATED ELECTION
First of a Series- May 4, 2010
By Ike Seneres

An anonymous caller alerted me last night that in the testing and sealing procedure conducted by the COMELEC in Makati City as part of the installation of the automation project, the results were unusually slanted in favor one mayoral candidate in the optical count, but the results were different in the manual count, recording more votes for the other mayoral candidates. Clearly it was a signal that something was wrong, so I decided to go to one of the Makati precincts to find out what was going on.

I arrived at the Ramon Magsaysay High School in Barangay Olympia just in time to interview Mr. Neal Aquino, who introduced himself as a technician working for Smartmatic. He explained that the problem might have been caused by the thin paper stock that was used in the testing, suggesting that the paper stock used was not the same as the stock used for the actual ballots. I wondered about the explanation of Mr. Aquino, since I could not see a connection between the thickness of the paper and the accuracy of the scanning process.

From Olympia, I proceeded to interview Councilor Junjun Binay, one of the mayoral candidates in Makati. He showed me video footages of the actual testing, and in the videos I saw the differences between the results of the manual count and the optical count. The video also showed footages of Board of Election Inspectors (BEI) who appeared to be bewildered about what happened.

On the telephone, I interviewed Mr. Lito Averia, an IT expert who has been monitoring the COMELEC automation from the start of the bidding until now. He explained to me that under COMELEC Resolution 8785, Smartmatic is required to conduct mock elections in every precinct, using ten random voters who are present at the testing site. This is the same testing and sealing procedure that was conducted by the COMELEC in several locations. Apparently, the purpose is to test first the Precinct Counting Optical Scanning (PCOS) Machine, before it is sealed for future use on May 10, 2010.

This morning, I received reports from other IT experts who said that the COMELEC has already explained that the discrepancy in the counting was caused by the ink bleeding over to the other side, thus disabling the capability of the scanner to read the marks on the other side. Mr. Leo Quirubin, an IT expert refuted this argument, saying that if indeed there was bleeding of the ink, then it should have also disabled the capability of the scanner to read the marks at the other side.

Going back to the explanation of Mr. Aquino, it would not seem right for COMELEC to use a thinner paper stock to test the scanner, because the point in an actual test is to find out whether the same machine could read the marks in an actual situation, meaning to say that it should have been an actual simulation using the same inputs.

Based on the interviews that I have conducted so far, and based on what I saw on the video footages, I am now under the impression that some political operators might have succeeded in inserting malicious codes in the PCOS machines either at the warehouse in Laguna, in transit or upon delivery at the precinct level. This observation leads me to speculate that the results that came out in the testing might have already been pre-programmed to favor certain candidates.

Under the bidding rules, the error rate of Smartmatic should not exceed 1% of the results. By its own admission, the COMELEC has already admitted that the error rate could exceed 30%. Obet Verzola, another IT expert has predicted that the error rate could exceed 75%. Based on what happened yesterday, it would appear that Verzola is right, and that Smartmatic has already violated the terms of the supply contract.

In text messages that I sent to other IT experts, I suggested that we now change the terminology from “automated counting” to “optical counting” because I think that this would be a more accurate description. After all, the counting procedure using the PCOS is not actually automated, because it is manually fed.

In a private meeting that I held with some election lawyers, I suggested that at this point, candidates could already demand for manual counting as a logical sequel to manual voting. I argued that in the first place, the voting process as it is now is not really automated, because it is paper based, and it is manually marked by the voters. There is now a reason to set aside “optical counting” because the machines already appear to be corrupted.
Copyright © 2010, publication by newspapers is authorized.

GOOD POLITICS EQUALS GOOD GOVERNANCE

NO HOLDS BARRED (065) May 02, 2010
By Ike Señeres

GOOD POLITICS EQUALS GOOD GOVERNANCE

I refuse to believe that good governance is an oxymoron, just like military intelligence as the joke goes. I believe however that there is such a thing as a balanced budget, not as a financial reality, but as a figure of speech that is doable if a government is honest and credible. I hope that no one will say that this too is an oxymoron.

Is it still possible to have an honest and credible government in the Philippines? This question is country specific, because there are many governments around the world that are honest and credible, and as a result, they are able to deliver good governance, whatever that means. I do believe however that good governance is actually the result of good politics, and I am hoping against hope that that too is not an oxymoron.

If indeed good governance is the result of good politics, then the best way for us to go really is to go back to our means of choosing the people who are tasked to run our government, and the only way towards that end is clean and honest elections, hoping that that too is not an oxymoron!

Veterans in the computer industry say that just because computers are there, we should not computerize for the sake of computerization. Simply put, the goal of computerization is to realize and actualize whatever the defined objectives are, and in this case, the objective really is to have clean and honest elections.

Are computers really needed to have clean and honest elections? The answer is definitely no, because clean and honest elections have been held in many countries without the use of computers. Should it be our objective to have faster results in our election system? The answer is yes, but only as a secondary objective, because the primary objective should be accuracy instead of efficiency.

For the record, we seem to be the only country in the world who is attempting a nationwide roll out of an election system that has not gone through a process of piloting and testing. Good luck to all of us, because the system should have been in place weeks before the actual voting day.

For the record as well, I could be the only person in the country who has formally and legally accepted the challenge of the COMELEC for anyone to hack their system, but unfortunately they did not make good on their challenge. Now, Chairman Jose Melo is claiming that their system is hack-free, but how sure is he that it is trouble-free?

Some members of the computer industry criticized me for accepting the COMELEC challenge, arguing that the issue is not really hacking from the outside, but cheating from the inside. I actually agree with them, because no matter how secure a system is, anyone who has the keys could open it from the outside, or an accomplice could open the doors from the inside. On this issue, could Chairman Melo say that their system is cheat-free?

A platform is something to stand on, but what we should look at are the people who are standing on it. A platform is presented by a political party, but it should be based on capability and credibility. Capability to deliver based on a track record, and the credibility to stand on their promises, based on their personal characters.

I am not against a multi-party system, but I wish that all political parties would have local chapters that would be actively engaged in local politics as well, in good politics that is. All politics is local they say, and I think that the test of that is to have local party units that will work towards good governance, whether or not they are the party in power.

The political parties have hit the nail by zooming in on poverty as the main issue, but the real issue I think is what they could do beyond poverty reduction. With that, I mean prosperity for the whole country in terms of a bigger economy, translated into bigger disposable incomes for everyone.

Good governance means the good delivery of public services. That is an output that every election winner is expected to achieve. Beyond that, the winners should do more. Protecting and restoring the environment should be expected from all the winners, because no economy could grow without the ecology as the top priority, climate change and global warming included.

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